It’s the end of the school year, and time to reflect on what we’ve learned and predict what the future may hold. In my energy policy course, we discussed the possibility of national or global action to combat climate change. Students pointed to the science, studies, frameworks, agreements, commitments, and endless summits. We have the knowledge and the resources to stop this self-genocide before it’s too late. But the harsh truth is, among those endless possibilities it’s highly improbable (≥1%?) humans will manage to create stringent and timely enough green house gas emissions-mitigating policies.

To successfully halt the worst of climate change, the globe needs to start decreasing GHG emissions by 5% a year – instead of growing by 3-5% per year as we’re doing right now. And we need to make that change by 2015. Never in the history of the fossil fuel economy (so, 100 years?) has that kind of emissions reduction occurred – except when the USSR collapsed. I’m not sure whether the schadenfreude is worth it, but I guess a global collapse would at least cause a reduction in emissions (or would people just start burning tires)? Because past 2015 it starts looking like Mission: Impossible to stop this crazy train from leaving the station.

Considering that countries have been talking about cutting GHGs since the 1970s, while simultaneously increasing their emissions, why would we cut the engines now? And if the cold harsh truth-slap of climate change sinks in for humanity, it’ll be way too late for any froofie mitigation to cut the edge on all the adaptation and suffering we’re going to need to do.

So why do I feel like the outlier among my classmates? How are my teachers and peers able to discuss these dire facts so nonchalantly, and then go on with their days? Is it because they suffer from the common cognitive flaw of optimism (also known as denial) or because I’m a pessimist (aka realist)? It’s an amazing evolutionary trait – being able to recognize and then ignore the obvious. Although ignorance is bliss, and self-imposed amnesia is a popular choice regarding these thorny global issues, is seeing the glass as half-full really helping if it’s full of CO2 emissions?

It guts me to think that by 2050 we’ll lose half the world’s species, coral reefs, and experience ocean acidification. By 2100 we’ll see 6°C (that’s 10°F!) global temperature increase, multi-meter sea rise, and possibly irreversible positive feedback loops. Game theory says it’s unlikely that any rational actor engaged in global climate change mitigation negotiations will be the first to fall on their sword, either by paying for mitigation or foregoing economic development. My own understanding of human nature and the economics of our fossil-fuel based economy gives me no reason to believe that individual countries or a global movement will sufficiently shift our trajectory in the few years we have left to enact the draconian austerity measures necessary.

Where does that leave things? Getting my Rapture Skillz ready! Because the Business As Usual scenario involves heading off a cliff into freaky freefall. So I’m sharpening my Shaolin spear skills for when I need to fight zombie vampires (sounds less dark than climate refugees, right?). And farming, foraging, first aid – basically anything that will increase my fitness if infrastructure collapses and we have to fend for ourselves.

I don’t want to bet against humanity and a stable future climate. I do love cities, culture, electricity, and non-rotting food. I know, how bourgeoisie! But no matter how I crunch the data it looks bleak. It’s likely that orienteering and scavenging will be more useful skills than sci-fi warfare, but I’m going with a buckshot approach to navigating the End Times.

What are your thoughts? Will society get its head out of its keister in time?