Topic: Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons: The Role of Youth as Change Agents
Disclaimer: the purpose of this paper is to provide the background information about this year’s topic and to supplement the content lectures, as well as, Masako’s project instructions.
Introduction:
In May of 2018, the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres launched an ambitious disarmament agenda, “Securing our Common Future: An Agenda for Disarmament” with an aim to reinvigorate the disarmament process. He emphasized the importance of education: “More education and training opportunities should be established, in order to empower young people to be a force for change and disarmament.”
The international security environment is deteriorating. The global nonproliferation and disarmament regime is facing significant challenges due to a number of setbacks in nonproliferation and disarmament efforts. Particularly, the relationship between the world largest nuclear weapons states, the United States and the Russian Federation, has significantly worsened, which increases the risk of a new arms race.
On August 2nd, 2019, the United States formally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) after accusing Russia of violations of the agreement. The New START that was concluded between the United States and Russia in 2010 will expire in February 2021. Currently, the possibility that the two countries will extend the treaty is bleak. If the New START expires and is not extended, for the first time since 1969, the two countries will be in a situation without an active arms control treaty. This will be a very dangerous situation in terms of the global nuclear weapons status.
Since the end of the Cold War, the number of nuclear weapons has reduced significantly. However, Cold War tensions have returned, but in a much more complex and dangerous environment. Both United States and Russia are seeking to expand the role and capability of the nuclear arsenal. The erosion of the US-Russian nuclear arms control regime presents immediate security concerns and has significantly negative impact on the overall nuclear disarmament efforts.
There are multiple challenges in nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, and arms control. These are by no means limited to the US-Russia bilateral relations.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) or North Korea continues to develop their ballistic missile program despite their pledge to cooperation and disarmament. There is still a significant degree of uncertainty in regards to how, when, and if the actual denuclearization negotiation will start. No concrete nuclear deal, including verification systems between the United States and North Korea, has been agreed upon.
Furthermore, in May of 2018, the U.S. administration withdrew from the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement aiming to end Iran’s progress toward obtaining nuclear weapons, and reinstated sanctions on the Iranian regime. This act once again opened the door for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Iran has started to take steps toward reducing its commitments to the agreement, an action that generates great concerns.
The Current Global Nuclear Weapons Status:
Almost seventy-five years after their development and use during World War II against two Japanese cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, nuclear weapons—the most destructive weapons human beings have invented, continue to be the basis for a number of states’ national security policies. More than a quarter century after the Cold War, approximately 14,000 nuclear warheads remain in the arsenals of the countries that possess nuclear weapons. Of those, approximately 9,330 are in military stockpiles, of which approximately 3,600 warheads are actively deployed, and some 1,800 are on high alert and ready for use on short notice. [1]
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) prohibits non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) parties from developing nuclear weapons. The treaty, however, exempts five de jure nuclear-weapons states (NWS) (France, the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from this ban. These five states had tested nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967. Under the NPT, they are allowed to keep their nuclear weapons programs. This historical situation has created two categories of states in the world: nuclear “haves” and “have-nots.” Critics of the NPT often point out the inherent discriminatory nature of the treaty. However, proponents of the treaty respond to this criticism by saying that the inequality is challenged in Article VI of the treaty, which legally obligates the five nuclear weapon states to eventually disarm.[2][3]
To add to the controversy, some non-nuclear NPT member states claim that NWS are not fulfilling their disarmament obligations despite demanding nonproliferation obligations from NNWS. Slow progress in nuclear disarmament caused frustration among non-nuclear weapon states, especially, non-aligned movement (NAM) countries, and civil society members who advocate for a world free of nuclear weapons. Since 2010, NAM countries and civil society members who advocate for nuclear disarmament have successfully pushed for the reframing of the debate on nuclear weapons to focus on their humanitarian impact and risk of use. They conclude that in the absence of adequate disarmament progress, it is necessary to delegitimize nuclear weapons. This movement led to the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on July 7th, 2017. None of nuclear weapons possessing countries and nuclear weapons-relying countries have signed the Treaty. The Treaty will enter into force when 50 states have ratified it. However, nuclear weapons states have declared that they will never join the Treaty. This demonstrates that the international community is divided based on its approach toward nuclear disarmament.
The year 2020 marks the fiftieth anniversary since the NPT entered into force. It is also the year in which the tenth NPT Review Conference will be held. Given the challenging international security environment surrounding nuclear issues, it seems difficult to have a successful outcome of the Review Conference.
How CIF students will tackle this year’s topic:
At the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly, for the first time, the resolution titled “Youth, disarmament and non-proliferation” was adopted. It highlighted the importance of promoting meaningful and inclusive participation of young people in conversations about disarmament and nonproliferation. “Youth” has become a keyword across many fields at the United Nations, especially in the field of disarmament and nonproliferation. This phenomenon has contributed to mainstreaming youth participation in the international community.
This year’s CIF project challenges CIF students to study the current difficult security environment and crisis surrounding nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, nuclear risks threatening global and regional peace and security, and explore pathways to solve such nuclear challenges and crises. Students, as change agents for a world free of nuclear weapons, will come up with creative action items to solve the current nuclear weapons challenges, and find a pathway to a world free of nuclear weapons.
Students will identify the current nuclear weapons-related issues, which include the possible new arms race between the United States and Russia, uncertain prospects on nuclear program in Iran due to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, and uncertainty in ending North Korea’s nuclear and missile program due to unpredictable leadership in both the United States and North Korea despite the historical summit between them.
Students will also investigate the international diplomatic status over nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation such as when the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) will enter into force, and what the outcomes of the 2020 NPT Review Conference could be. When students consider these multilateral diplomacies, they need to take into consideration the current divided opinions related to pathways toward nuclear disarmament. Students will investigate non-nuclear weapons states’ dissatisfaction with existing nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament treaties such as the NPT, as well as nuclear weapons states’ opposition to the TPNW.
There are many challenges and crises surrounding nuclear weapons issues that have a significant impact on global nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regimes. Students are expected to have a general understanding of these major nuclear challenges.
Students can select one or two specific issues they would like to further investigate and study possible pathways towards a solution. They will learn how to mitigate a global nuclear weapons crisis in this challenging international situation and eventually accomplish the goals of peace and security of a world free of nuclear weapons.
Students will come up with their own ideas as to what action they could take to make progress in nuclear disarmament based on their research, decide the best way to reduce the current nuclear risk, and identify pathways that lead to a world free of nuclear weapons.
To understand and examine these challenges and future prospects, it is important for CIF students to study the current world nuclear weapons situation, proliferation threats, and states’ policies toward nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, as well as basic scientific aspects of nuclear weapons.
Based on these investigations, students will create
their own assessment on how to mitigate the current nuclear crisis, and
eventually, how to reach a goal of peace and security of a world free of
nuclear weapons. Participants will examine this topic in CIF’s four content
domains: scientific/environmental, social/cultural, economic, and political
/geopolitical. Students will then present their own concrete proposals toward
that goal.
[1] Status of World Nuclear Forces, Federation of American Scientists. https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/
[2] Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on NTI website, http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-non-proliferation-of-nuclear-weapons/
[3] NPT Tutorial, NTI website, http://tutorials.nti.org/npt-tutorial/introduction
